Substantiation of statistical model to describe and predict risks of tick bites for population

Incidence of tick-borne encephalitis and other infections correlates with a number people applying for medical aid due to tick bites. Obviously, the registered bites is proportionate people’s economic recreational activities on an endemic territory quantity hungry ticks. In its turn, ticks depends abundance main hosts blood-feeding stages but certain time lag caused by their life cycle parameters such as molting next stage, diapauses, apparent seasonality in continental boreal climate zone. Our research goal was analyze synthesize adequate formalized/parameterized statistical model describe predict risks population. To dynamics bitten exemplified Sverdlovsk region, we used several linear (by parameters) logistic regression models. We applied multimodel inference framework assess whether observed described adequately. Long-tern region characterized occurring high-amplitude slow long-wave oscillation (circadecadal one, quasi-period being approximately 10 years) short-wave 2–3-year cyclicity. The former may be associated climatic rhythm socioeconomic trends; latter biotic factors. By using logit-regression model, showed that small mammals, both previous year at beginning current activity season can valuable predictor risk population Predictive values created adequately initial series chances/probabilities